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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-12-24T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-24T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28326/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely a dimming region observed in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193 imagery starting around 2023-12-24T15:00Z from ~S25W45. Arrival signature: Likely but not characteristic CME arrival/sheath with magnetic field enhancement to just below 8nT, followed at ~2023-12-27T20Z by a likely start of a flux rope showing smooth rotation of magnetic field components and possibly indicating a glancing blow from a CME since components run in parallel. The arrival time might be even earlier since there is a data gap in DSCOVR from 2023-12-27T07:16Z to 08:26Z (also overlapping by an even larger gap in ACE data). This arrival could alternatively be attributed to the arrival of 2023-12-24T13:25Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-27T08:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-28T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-24T22:24Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 572
Longitude (deg): 016W
Latitude (deg): 30S
Half-angular width (deg): 24 

Notes: High coronal dimming, not visible on H-alpha, but filament channel-like footprint left in wake of event. Not associated directly with M-class from AR3529 either side of it in time, but perhaps triggered indirectly. Shows volatility in arrival time in MOSWOC Enlil, again probably due to sheer number of CMEs nearby.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 41.98 hour(s)
Difference: -21.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-12-25T14:27Z

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